Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoROUNDS pick
56%44%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge ROUNDS +12%Subtop De France · 5 maps
AncientSubtop De France ban
63%25%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +38%Subtop De France · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%33%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +38%Subtop De France · 5 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
33%30%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Subtop De France · 6 maps
NukeSubtop De France pick
20%50%
ROUNDS · 6 mapsedge Subtop De France +30%Subtop De France · 2 maps
CacheROUNDS ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Subtop De France +17%Subtop De France · 2 maps
MirageSubtop De France ban
29%50%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge Subtop De France +21%Subtop De France · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanSubtop De France remove Ancient
3. PickROUNDS take Inferno
4. PickSubtop De France take Nuke
5. BanSubtop De France remove Mirage
6. BanROUNDS remove Cache
DeciderDefault (71% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ROUNDS 83%Subtop De France 17%
The model gave 83% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
ROUNDS 22%Subtop De France 78%
The model gave 78% on Subtop De France — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 55%
Series resultROUNDS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2