Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 14:16series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 14:16
Trainwrecks#167 in the world · win 16:14The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
ROUNDS · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
MirageROUNDS ban
33%40%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge Trainwrecks +7%Trainwrecks · 1 map
AncientTrainwrecks ban
56%50%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge ROUNDS +6%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
NukeROUNDS ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge Trainwrecks +17%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
DefaultTrainwrecks ban
71%50%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +21%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
CacheTrainwrecks ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Trainwrecks +17%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Trainwrecks +17%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanTrainwrecks remove Default
3. BanROUNDS remove Mirage
4. BanTrainwrecks remove Cache
5. BanROUNDS remove Nuke
6. BanTrainwrecks remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
ROUNDS 33%Trainwrecks 67%
The model gave 67% on Trainwrecks — the map was taken by Trainwrecks.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 57%
Series resultTrainwrecks 14:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1