NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
43%44%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Vexar · 5 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
67%67%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 5 maps
InfernoVexar ban
43%50%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge Vexar +7%Vexar · 2 maps
MirageVexar ban
43%33%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%Vexar · 2 maps
NukeROUNDS ban
50%60%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 1 map
Dust2ROUNDS ban
50%50%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. PickROUNDS take Default
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Inferno
6. BanROUNDS remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ROUNDS 50%Vexar 50%
The model gave 50% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
ROUNDS 40%Vexar 60%
The model gave 60% on Vexar — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 57%
Series resultROUNDS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2