Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
63%35%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +28%Vexar · 13 maps
NukeROUNDS ban
25%44%
ROUNDS · 8 mapsedge Vexar +19%Vexar · 5 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
75%55%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +20%Vexar · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%60%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Vexar · 6 maps
MirageVexar ban
25%40%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge Vexar +15%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
33%63%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Vexar +30%Vexar · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%38%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +12%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickROUNDS take Default
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Mirage
6. BanROUNDS remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
ROUNDS 32%Vexar 68%
The model gave 68% on Vexar — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
ROUNDS 73%Vexar 27%
The model gave 73% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
ROUNDS 33%Vexar 67%
The model gave 67% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 64%
Series resultVexar 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3