1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rune Eaters ban
42%43%
Rune Eaters · 22 mapsnearly even -1%DNK · 3 maps
MirageDNK ban
58%40%
Rune Eaters · 15 mapsedge Rune Eaters +18%DNK · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
53%60%
Rune Eaters · 13 mapsedge DNK +7%DNK · 1 map
InfernoDNK ban
36%50%
Rune Eaters · 7 mapsedge DNK +14%DNK · 0 maps
AnubisRune Eaters pick
71%33%
Rune Eaters · 3 mapsedge Rune Eaters +38%DNK · 2 maps
CacheRune Eaters ban
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 4 mapsnearly even +0%DNK · 0 maps
DefaultDNK pick
71%50%
Rune Eaters · 3 mapsedge Rune Eaters +21%DNK · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRune Eaters remove Cache
2. BanDNK remove Mirage
3. PickRune Eaters take Anubis
4. PickDNK take Default
5. BanDNK remove Inferno
6. BanRune Eaters remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (53% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
Rune Eaters 47%DNK 53%
The model gave 53% on DNK — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Rune Eaters 52%DNK 48%
The model gave 52% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 74%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2