KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NOVAQ#237 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rune Eaters pick
54%63%
Rune Eaters · 20 mapsedge NOVAQ +9%NOVAQ · 4 maps
MirageNOVAQ ban
56%50%
Rune Eaters · 21 mapedge Rune Eaters +6%NOVAQ · 2 maps
AncientNOVAQ pick
50%63%
Rune Eaters · 16 mapsedge NOVAQ +13%NOVAQ · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
Rune Eaters · 12 mapsedge NOVAQ +7%NOVAQ · 3 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
44%50%
Rune Eaters · 5 mapsedge NOVAQ +6%NOVAQ · 0 maps
DefaultNOVAQ ban
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NOVAQ · 0 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
33%40%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsedge NOVAQ +7%NOVAQ · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
2. BanNOVAQ remove Mirage
3. PickRune Eaters take Dust2
4. PickNOVAQ take Ancient
5. BanNOVAQ remove Default
6. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Rune Eaters 35%NOVAQ 65%
The model gave 65% on NOVAQ — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Rune Eaters 59%NOVAQ 41%
The model gave 59% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by NOVAQ.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Rune Eaters 41%NOVAQ 59%
The model gave 59% on NOVAQ — the map was taken by NOVAQ.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 57%
Series resultNOVAQ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3