CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
RUSH#225 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSementes do Mal pick
50%33%
RUSH · 0 mapsedge RUSH +17%Sementes do Mal · 2 maps
DefaultRUSH ban
50%50%
RUSH · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 2 maps
MirageRUSH ban
40%40%
RUSH · 1 mapnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
NukeSementes do Mal ban
33%50%
RUSH · 2 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +17%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
AncientSementes do Mal ban
40%50%
RUSH · 1 mapedge Sementes do Mal +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Dust2RUSH pick
50%40%
RUSH · 0 mapsedge RUSH +10%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
RUSH · 0 mapsedge RUSH +10%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRUSH remove Mirage
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Nuke
3. PickRUSH take Dust2
4. PickSementes do Mal take Cache
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Ancient
6. BanRUSH remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
RUSH 64%Sementes do Mal 36%
The model gave 64% on RUSH — the map was taken by RUSH.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
RUSH 53%Sementes do Mal 47%
The model gave 53% on RUSH — the map was taken by RUSH.
Model check result
Model favoriteRUSH · 54%
Series resultRUSH 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2