European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
35%64%
RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge Honvéd +29%Honvéd · 10 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
55%53%
RUSTEC · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Honvéd · 11 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
40%57%
RUSTEC · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Honvéd · 3 maps
OverpassHonvéd ban
44%29%
RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge RUSTEC +15%Honvéd · 3 maps
InfernoRUSTEC pick
67%40%
RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge RUSTEC +27%Honvéd · 1 map
AncientRUSTEC ban
50%56%
RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +6%Honvéd · 5 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
33%60%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +27%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickRUSTEC take Inferno
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Overpass
6. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (35% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
RUSTEC 25%Honvéd 75%
The model gave 75% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
RUSTEC 23%Honvéd 77%
The model gave 77% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 57%
Series resultHonvéd 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2