ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ryvex#181 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeKUUSAMO pick
43%67%
Ryvex · 3 mapsedge KUUSAMO +24%KUUSAMO · 8 maps
Dust2Ryvex pick
43%38%
Ryvex · 3 mapsedge Ryvex +5%KUUSAMO · 4 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
63%33%
Ryvex · 4 mapsedge Ryvex +30%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
43%57%
Ryvex · 3 mapsedge KUUSAMO +14%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
InfernoKUUSAMO ban
60%43%
Ryvex · 1 mapedge Ryvex +17%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
MirageRyvex ban
60%57%
Ryvex · 1 mapnearly even +3%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
DefaultRyvex ban
50%60%
Ryvex · 0 mapsedge KUUSAMO +10%KUUSAMO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRyvex remove Default
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
3. PickRyvex take Dust2
4. PickKUUSAMO take Nuke
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Inferno
6. BanRyvex remove Mirage
DeciderCache (43% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Ryvex 79%KUUSAMO 21%
The model gave 79% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Nukeprediction correct15:19
Ryvex 25%KUUSAMO 75%
The model gave 75% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Ryvex 53%KUUSAMO 47%
The model gave 53% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Model check result
Model favoriteRyvex · 53%
Series resultRyvex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3