ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ryvex#181 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRyvex pick
57%33%
Ryvex · 3 mapsedge Ryvex +24%MAYBE · 5 maps
MirageMAYBE pick
60%55%
Ryvex · 1 mapedge Ryvex +5%MAYBE · 7 maps
Dust2MAYBE ban
50%22%
Ryvex · 2 mapsedge Ryvex +28%MAYBE · 5 maps
CacheRyvex ban
33%57%
Ryvex · 2 mapsedge MAYBE +24%MAYBE · 3 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
43%50%
Ryvex · 3 mapsedge MAYBE +7%MAYBE · 2 maps
AnubisRyvex ban
50%43%
Ryvex · 0 mapsedge Ryvex +7%MAYBE · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Ryvex · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRyvex remove Anubis
2. BanMAYBE remove Dust2
3. PickRyvex take Ancient
4. PickMAYBE take Mirage
5. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
6. BanRyvex remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Ryvex 80%MAYBE 20%
The model gave 80% on Ryvex — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
Ryvex 25%MAYBE 75%
The model gave 75% on MAYBE — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Ryvex 73%MAYBE 27%
The model gave 73% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Model check result
Model favoriteMAYBE · 52%
Series resultRyvex 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3