Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Vexar#123 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSaint Sinners ban
50%50%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 16 maps
NukeSaint Sinners pick
40%36%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapnearly even +4%Vexar · 10 maps
MirageVexar pick
50%62%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge Saint Sinners +20%Vexar · 6 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%33%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge Saint Sinners +17%Vexar · 5 maps
InfernoVexar ban
50%56%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge Vexar +6%Vexar · 5 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners ban
50%50%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickSaint Sinners take Nuke
4. PickVexar take Mirage
5. BanVexar remove Inferno
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Saint Sinners 69%Vexar 31%
The model gave 69% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 66%
Series resultVexar 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1