Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSangal pick
78%54%
Sangal · 14 mapsedge Sangal +24%Betclic · 9 maps
CacheSangal ban
67%58%
Sangal · 14 mapsedge Sangal +9%Betclic · 8 maps
AnubisBetclic ban
57%43%
Sangal · 10 mapsedge Sangal +14%Betclic · 10 maps
MirageBetclic ban
50%50%
Sangal · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 6 maps
AncientSangal ban
45%50%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Betclic +5%Betclic · 8 maps
Dust2Betclic pick
43%67%
Sangal · 10 mapsedge Betclic +24%Betclic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Ancient
2. BanBetclic remove Mirage
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickBetclic take Dust2
5. BanBetclic remove Anubis
6. BanSangal remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Sangal 53%Betclic 47%
The model gave 53% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Anubisprediction correct16:13
Sangal 61%Betclic 39%
The model gave 61% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 57%
Series resultSangal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2