Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#40 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BRUTE#89 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
44%63%
Sangal · 12 mapsedge BRUTE +19%BRUTE · 15 maps
MirageSangal ban
53%61%
Sangal · 11 mapsedge BRUTE +8%BRUTE · 14 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
60%47%
Sangal · 11 mapsedge Sangal +13%BRUTE · 13 maps
NukeSangal pick
75%50%
Sangal · 16 mapsedge Sangal +25%BRUTE · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
68%70%
Sangal · 15 mapsnearly even -2%BRUTE · 6 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
50%33%
Sangal · 8 mapsedge Sangal +17%BRUTE · 2 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%63%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +13%BRUTE · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. BanSangal remove Mirage
DeciderCache (68% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
Sangal 77%BRUTE 23%
The model gave 77% on Sangal — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
Sangal 39%BRUTE 61%
The model gave 61% on BRUTE — the map was taken by Sangal.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Sangal 63%BRUTE 37%
The model gave 63% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 71%
Series resultSangal 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3