Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE pick
44%54%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge ENCE +10%ENCE · 20 maps
NukeSangal pick
73%53%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Sangal +20%ENCE · 13 maps
CacheSangal ban
64%50%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Sangal +14%ENCE · 8 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
33%50%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge ENCE +17%ENCE · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%54%
Sangal · 4 mapsedge Sangal +9%ENCE · 9 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%59%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge ENCE +9%ENCE · 13 maps
AncientENCE ban
56%22%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge Sangal +34%ENCE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickENCE take Mirage
5. BanENCE remove Dust2
6. BanSangal remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (63% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
Sangal 66%ENCE 34%
The model gave 66% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Sangal 31%ENCE 69%
The model gave 69% on ENCE — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 62%
Series resultSangal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2