Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSangal pick
63%44%
Sangal · 4 mapsedge Sangal +19%FOKUS · 12 maps
AncientSangal ban
33%44%
Sangal · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +11%FOKUS · 12 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
63%75%
Sangal · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +12%FOKUS · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%43%
Sangal · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +10%FOKUS · 10 maps
MirageSangal ban
43%45%
Sangal · 3 mapsnearly even -2%FOKUS · 7 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
57%57%
Sangal · 3 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 3 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
50%38%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge Sangal +12%FOKUS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Ancient
2. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickFOKUS take Cache
5. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
6. BanSangal remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (33% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Sangal 37%FOKUS 63%
The model gave 63% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Sangal 71%FOKUS 29%
The model gave 71% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Sangal 47%FOKUS 53%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 70%
Series resultSangal 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3