Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 13:10series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 13:10
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
60%60%
Sangal · 6 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
63%50%
Sangal · 4 mapsedge Sangal +13%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT ban
33%44%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +11%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%50%
Sangal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
MirageSangal ban
44%57%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +13%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
43%38%
Sangal · 3 mapsedge Sangal +5%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
67%50%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge Sangal +17%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. BanSangal remove Ancient
4. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Dust2
5. BanSangal remove Mirage
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
DeciderCache (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Sangal 56%HYPERSPIRIT 44%
The model gave 56% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 72%
Series resultSangal 13:10
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1