Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 13:10series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 13:10
SAW#61 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSangal ban
64%69%
Sangal · 10 mapsedge SAW +5%SAW · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
77%64%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge Sangal +13%SAW · 7 maps
AnubisSAW ban
70%50%
Sangal · 6 mapsedge Sangal +20%SAW · 8 maps
AncientSangal ban
56%58%
Sangal · 5 mapsnearly even -2%SAW · 8 maps
Dust2SAW ban
36%33%
Sangal · 7 mapsnearly even +3%SAW · 5 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%80%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge SAW +30%SAW · 11 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%50%
Sangal · 8 mapsnearly even +0%SAW · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. BanSangal remove Ancient
4. BanSAW remove Dust2
5. BanSangal remove Cache
6. BanSAW remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (77% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Sangal 66%SAW 34%
The model gave 66% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 55%
Series resultSangal 13:10
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1