Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi Academy#169 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Strael Bora#239 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSashi Academy ban
40%50%
Sashi Academy · 1 mapedge Strael Bora +10%Strael Bora · 0 maps
InfernoStrael Bora ban
60%50%
Sashi Academy · 1 mapedge Sashi Academy +10%Strael Bora · 0 maps
NukeSashi Academy pick
40%50%
Sashi Academy · 1 mapedge Strael Bora +10%Strael Bora · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi Academy remove Ancient
2. BanStrael Bora remove Inferno
3. PickSashi Academy take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Sashi Academy 63%Strael Bora 37%
The model gave 63% on Sashi Academy — the map was taken by Sashi Academy.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Sashi Academy 37%Strael Bora 63%
The model gave 63% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Strael Bora.
Ancientprediction missed19:16
Sashi Academy 40%Strael Bora 60%
The model gave 60% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Sashi Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi Academy · 60%
Series resultSashi Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3