Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#97 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FOKUS#52 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
58%38%
Sashi · 15 mapsedge Sashi +20%FOKUS · 12 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
44%43%
Sashi · 14 mapsnearly even +1%FOKUS · 10 maps
AncientFOKUS pick
43%44%
Sashi · 10 mapsnearly even -1%FOKUS · 12 maps
CacheSashi pick
65%82%
Sashi · 13 mapsedge FOKUS +17%FOKUS · 7 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
64%38%
Sashi · 7 mapsedge Sashi +26%FOKUS · 4 maps
MirageSashi ban
40%45%
Sashi · 1 mapedge FOKUS +5%FOKUS · 7 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
63%57%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +6%FOKUS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
3. PickSashi take Cache
4. PickFOKUS take Ancient
5. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (58% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Sashi 49%FOKUS 51%
The model gave 51% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Sashi 72%FOKUS 28%
The model gave 72% on Sashi — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 56%
Series resultFOKUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2