European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
29%44%
Sashi · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +15%HYPERSPIRIT · 12 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%38%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +12%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%36%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +14%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%29%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +21%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
InfernoSashi pick
71%33%
Sashi · 3 mapsedge Sashi +38%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%63%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +13%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT pick
50%71%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +21%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Ancient
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Sashi 85%HYPERSPIRIT 15%
The model gave 85% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Sashi 31%HYPERSPIRIT 69%
The model gave 69% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Sashi 64%HYPERSPIRIT 36%
The model gave 64% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 70%
Series resultSashi 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3