European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSashi pick
50%60%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%KOLESIE · 16 maps
Dust2possible decider
25%27%
Sashi · 4 mapsnearly even -2%KOLESIE · 11 maps
OverpassKOLESIE pick
60%60%
Sashi · 1 mapnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 11 maps
AncientSashi ban
50%47%
Sashi · 0 mapsnearly even +3%KOLESIE · 11 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%67%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%KOLESIE · 11 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%KOLESIE · 8 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
75%50%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +25%KOLESIE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. PickSashi take Nuke
4. PickKOLESIE take Overpass
5. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
6. BanSashi remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (25% / 27%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Sashi 56%KOLESIE 44%
The model gave 56% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Sashi 37%KOLESIE 63%
The model gave 63% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Sashi 48%KOLESIE 52%
The model gave 52% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 54%
Series resultKOLESIE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3