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NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
25%56%
Sashi · 12 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +31%Nuclear TigeRES · 14 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
50%50%
Sashi · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 12 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
57%75%
Sashi · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +18%Nuclear TigeRES · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%53%
Sashi · 5 mapsnearly even +3%Nuclear TigeRES · 13 maps
InfernoSashi pick
80%71%
Sashi · 6 mapsedge Sashi +9%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%55%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%Nuclear TigeRES · 7 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
78%50%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +28%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (56% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Sashi 53%Nuclear TigeRES 47%
The model gave 53% on Sashi — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
Sashi 28%Nuclear TigeRES 72%
The model gave 72% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Sashi.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Sashi 53%Nuclear TigeRES 47%
The model gave 53% on Sashi — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 51%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3