NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Phantom pick
25%53%
Sashi · 12 mapsedge Phantom +28%Phantom · 13 maps
NukeSashi ban
46%58%
Sashi · 9 mapsedge Phantom +12%Phantom · 15 maps
AncientPhantom ban
56%53%
Sashi · 5 mapsnearly even +3%Phantom · 13 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%38%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +12%Phantom · 12 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%67%
Sashi · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 8 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
78%60%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +18%Phantom · 1 map
CacheSashi pick
75%50%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +25%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickSashi take Cache
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Ancient
6. BanSashi remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
Sashi 47%Phantom 53%
The model gave 53% on Phantom — the map was taken by Sashi.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
Sashi 77%Phantom 23%
The model gave 77% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 50%
Series resultSashi 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2