Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#64 in the world · win 13:7series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 13:7
ASTRAL#104 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSAW ban
58%56%
SAW · 8 mapsnearly even +2%ASTRAL · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
54%54%
SAW · 9 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 9 maps
CacheASTRAL ban
69%50%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +19%ASTRAL · 6 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
80%33%
SAW · 11 mapsedge SAW +47%ASTRAL · 2 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
54%43%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +11%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%30%
SAW · 5 mapsnearly even +3%ASTRAL · 6 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%38%
SAW · 0 mapsedge SAW +12%ASTRAL · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. BanSAW remove Dust2
4. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanASTRAL remove Cache
DeciderNuke (54% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
SAW 69%ASTRAL 31%
The model gave 69% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 53%
Series resultSAW 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1