Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#64 in the world · win 13:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 13:1
BBayankhongorloss 1:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoBayankhongor ban
80%50%
SAW · 11 mapsedge SAW +30%Bayankhongor · 0 maps
CacheBayankhongor ban
69%50%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +19%Bayankhongor · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
54%50%
SAW · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Bayankhongor · 0 maps
AncientSAW ban
58%50%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +8%Bayankhongor · 0 maps
AnubisSAW ban
50%50%
SAW · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Bayankhongor · 0 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%50%
SAW · 5 mapsedge Bayankhongor +17%Bayankhongor · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Dust2
2. BanBayankhongor remove Inferno
3. BanSAW remove Ancient
4. BanBayankhongor remove Cache
5. BanSAW remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:1
SAW 50%Bayankhongor 50%
The model gave 50% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 78%
Series resultSAW 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1