Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 13:5series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 13:5
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
79%56%
SAW · 10 mapsedge SAW +23%Famalicão · 5 maps
AncientSAW ban
55%36%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +19%Famalicão · 7 maps
CacheFamalicão ban
69%33%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +36%Famalicão · 5 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
50%33%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +17%Famalicão · 2 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%56%
SAW · 5 mapsedge Famalicão +23%Famalicão · 5 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
64%50%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +14%Famalicão · 0 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%60%
SAW · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +10%Famalicão · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. BanSAW remove Dust2
4. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanFamalicão remove Cache
DeciderInferno (79% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
SAW 75%Famalicão 25%
The model gave 75% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 77%
Series resultSAW 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1