Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · loss 14:16series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 14:16
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 16:14The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SAW ban
33%39%
SAW · 5 mapsedge NAVI Junior +6%NAVI Junior · 19 maps
Anubispossible decider
55%58%
SAW · 7 mapsnearly even -3%NAVI Junior · 15 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%67%
SAW · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +17%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
AncientSAW ban
55%29%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +26%NAVI Junior · 10 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
64%38%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +26%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
69%33%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +36%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
79%33%
SAW · 10 mapsedge SAW +46%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. BanSAW remove Dust2
4. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (55% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct14:16
SAW 47%NAVI Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 74%
Series resultNAVI Junior 14:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1