Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · loss 4:13series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 4:13
RBLS#93 in the world · win 13:4The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
80%57%
SAW · 11 mapsedge SAW +23%RBLS · 3 maps
AncientSAW ban
58%56%
SAW · 8 mapsnearly even +2%RBLS · 5 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
50%50%
SAW · 8 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 4 maps
CacheRBLS ban
69%57%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +12%RBLS · 3 maps
NukeSAW ban
58%50%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +8%RBLS · 4 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%44%
SAW · 5 mapsedge RBLS +11%RBLS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Dust2
2. BanRBLS remove Cache
3. BanSAW remove Ancient
4. BanRBLS remove Anubis
5. BanSAW remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (80% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
SAW 58%RBLS 42%
The model gave 58% on SAW — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 68%
Series resultRBLS 4:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1