ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sensationloss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The QUBE#163 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultSensation ban
40%50%
Sensation · 1 mapedge The QUBE +10%The QUBE · 0 maps
Dust2The QUBE ban
50%40%
Sensation · 0 mapsedge Sensation +10%The QUBE · 1 map
MirageSensation pick
50%40%
Sensation · 0 mapsedge Sensation +10%The QUBE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSensation remove Default
2. BanThe QUBE remove Dust2
3. PickSensation take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Sensation 40%The QUBE 60%
The model gave 60% on The QUBE — the map was taken by The QUBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe QUBE · 60%
Series resultThe QUBE 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1