Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSharks pick
69%71%
Sharks · 12 mapsnearly even -2%Echo · 3 maps
AncientEcho ban
64%63%
Sharks · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Echo · 4 maps
MirageEcho ban
50%50%
Sharks · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Echo · 4 maps
OverpassSharks ban
29%40%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Echo +11%Echo · 6 maps
AnubisEcho pick
38%50%
Sharks · 4 mapsedge Echo +12%Echo · 2 maps
InfernoSharks ban
57%40%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Sharks +17%Echo · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Overpass
2. BanEcho remove Ancient
3. PickSharks take Nuke
4. PickEcho take Anubis
5. BanEcho remove Mirage
6. BanSharks remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
Sharks 50%Echo 50%
The model gave 50% on Echo — the map was taken by Echo.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Sharks 64%Echo 36%
The model gave 64% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Sharks 51%Echo 49%
The model gave 51% on Sharks — the map was taken by Echo.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 65%
Series resultEcho 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3