PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#85 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fluxo#58 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
40%65%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +25%Fluxo · 22 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%53%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge ShindeN +7%Fluxo · 13 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
57%54%
ShindeN · 10 mapsnearly even +3%Fluxo · 9 maps
MirageShindeN ban
50%64%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge Fluxo +14%Fluxo · 10 maps
CacheFluxo ban
44%50%
ShindeN · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +6%Fluxo · 6 maps
AncientFluxo ban
60%50%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge ShindeN +10%Fluxo · 0 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
50%40%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +10%Fluxo · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Anubis
2. BanFluxo remove Ancient
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickFluxo take Nuke
5. BanFluxo remove Cache
6. BanShindeN remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (60% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
ShindeN 24%Fluxo 76%
The model gave 76% on Fluxo — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
ShindeN 47%Fluxo 53%
The model gave 53% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
ShindeN 36%Fluxo 64%
The model gave 64% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 50%
Series resultFluxo 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3