FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#57 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Isurus#236 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%37%
ShindeN · 12 mapsedge ShindeN +13%Isurus · 15 maps
Dust2ShindeN ban
50%53%
ShindeN · 14 mapsnearly even -3%Isurus · 11 maps
AncientIsurus ban
56%33%
ShindeN · 5 mapsedge ShindeN +23%Isurus · 11 maps
CacheIsurus pick
45%50%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge Isurus +5%Isurus · 8 maps
NukeShindeN pick
60%38%
ShindeN · 11 mapsedge ShindeN +22%Isurus · 4 maps
MirageIsurus ban
25%33%
ShindeN · 12 mapsedge Isurus +8%Isurus · 2 maps
DefaultShindeN ban
50%71%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge Isurus +21%Isurus · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Default
2. BanIsurus remove Ancient
3. PickShindeN take Nuke
4. PickIsurus take Cache
5. BanIsurus remove Mirage
6. BanShindeN remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 37%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
ShindeN 69%Isurus 31%
The model gave 69% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Isurus.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
ShindeN 48%Isurus 52%
The model gave 52% on Isurus — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
ShindeN 63%Isurus 37%
The model gave 63% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 66%
Series resultIsurus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3