FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Signatusloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Isurus#236 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSignatus ban
50%37%
Signatus · 0 mapsedge Signatus +13%Isurus · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%53%
Signatus · 1 mapedge Isurus +13%Isurus · 11 maps
AncientIsurus ban
50%29%
Signatus · 0 mapsedge Signatus +21%Isurus · 10 maps
CacheIsurus pick
40%50%
Signatus · 1 mapedge Isurus +10%Isurus · 8 maps
DefaultSignatus ban
50%71%
Signatus · 0 mapsedge Isurus +21%Isurus · 3 maps
NukeSignatus pick
50%29%
Signatus · 0 mapsedge Signatus +21%Isurus · 3 maps
MirageIsurus ban
50%33%
Signatus · 0 mapsedge Signatus +17%Isurus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSignatus remove Default
2. BanIsurus remove Mirage
3. PickSignatus take Nuke
4. PickIsurus take Cache
5. BanIsurus remove Ancient
6. BanSignatus remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (40% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Signatus 74%Isurus 26%
The model gave 74% on Signatus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Nukeprediction missed3:13
Signatus 69%Isurus 31%
The model gave 69% on Signatus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 51%
Series resultIsurus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2