ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 13:16series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 13:16
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 16:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
63%71%
SINNERS · 20 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
57%56%
SINNERS · 17 mapsnearly even +1%Eternal Fire · 14 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
42%58%
SINNERS · 15 mapsedge Eternal Fire +16%Eternal Fire · 15 maps
AncientSINNERS ban
61%61%
SINNERS · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 14 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
40%57%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Eternal Fire · 10 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%58%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
45%50%
SINNERS · 7 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. BanSINNERS remove Cache
4. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
5. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
6. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (63% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
SINNERS 41%Eternal Fire 59%
The model gave 59% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 51%
Series resultEternal Fire 13:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1