IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINNERS#44 in the world · loss 14:16series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 14:16
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 16:14The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFlyQuest ban
63%40%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge SINNERS +23%FlyQuest · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
50%67%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%FlyQuest · 2 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
29%40%
SINNERS · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +11%FlyQuest · 1 map
NukeFlyQuest ban
50%60%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 1 map
AncientSINNERS ban
50%33%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +17%FlyQuest · 2 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
67%50%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +17%FlyQuest · 0 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%60%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
3. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
4. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
6. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
SINNERS 67%FlyQuest 33%
The model gave 67% on SINNERS — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 71%
Series resultFlyQuest 14:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1