1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GamerLegion ban
65%40%
SINNERS · 19 mapsedge SINNERS +25%GamerLegion · 6 maps
AncientGamerLegion pick
58%45%
SINNERS · 15 mapsedge SINNERS +13%GamerLegion · 7 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
44%78%
SINNERS · 14 mapsedge GamerLegion +34%GamerLegion · 5 maps
MirageGamerLegion ban
56%22%
SINNERS · 14 mapsedge SINNERS +34%GamerLegion · 5 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
50%50%
SINNERS · 6 mapsnearly even +0%GamerLegion · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%50%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge GamerLegion +10%GamerLegion · 0 maps
DefaultSINNERS pick
50%40%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +10%GamerLegion · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Cache
2. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
3. PickSINNERS take Default
4. PickGamerLegion take Ancient
5. BanGamerLegion remove Mirage
6. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
SINNERS 83%GamerLegion 17%
The model gave 83% on SINNERS — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Cacheprediction correct17:19
SINNERS 17%GamerLegion 83%
The model gave 83% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 76%
Series resultGamerLegion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2