Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC#25 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINNERS pick
65%57%
SINNERS · 22 mapsedge SINNERS +8%HEROIC · 17 maps
Ancientpossible decider
65%67%
SINNERS · 16 mapsnearly even -2%HEROIC · 17 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
43%63%
SINNERS · 17 mapsedge HEROIC +20%HEROIC · 15 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
60%60%
SINNERS · 21 mapnearly even +0%HEROIC · 11 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
44%68%
SINNERS · 12 mapsedge HEROIC +24%HEROIC · 15 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
36%73%
SINNERS · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +37%HEROIC · 7 maps
DefaultSINNERS ban
50%60%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +10%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
2. BanHEROIC remove Cache
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
6. BanSINNERS remove Default
DeciderAncient (65% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
SINNERS 53%HEROIC 47%
The model gave 53% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
SINNERS 16%HEROIC 84%
The model gave 84% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
SINNERS 59%HEROIC 41%
The model gave 59% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 61%
Series resultSINNERS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3