ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 13:6series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 13:6
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lilmix ban
63%40%
SINNERS · 20 mapsedge SINNERS +23%Lilmix · 1 map
MirageLilmix ban
55%38%
SINNERS · 16 mapsedge SINNERS +17%Lilmix · 4 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
42%43%
SINNERS · 15 mapsnearly even -1%Lilmix · 3 maps
AncientLilmix ban
61%29%
SINNERS · 14 mapsedge SINNERS +32%Lilmix · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%33%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge SINNERS +7%Lilmix · 2 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
45%50%
SINNERS · 7 mapsedge Lilmix +5%Lilmix · 0 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%50%
SINNERS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanLilmix remove Dust2
3. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
4. BanLilmix remove Ancient
5. BanSINNERS remove Cache
6. BanLilmix remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
SINNERS 67%Lilmix 33%
The model gave 67% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 83%
Series resultSINNERS 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1