1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phantom#59 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom pick
42%60%
SINNERS · 8 mapsedge Phantom +18%Phantom · 16 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
60%54%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge SINNERS +6%Phantom · 9 maps
MiragePhantom ban
54%44%
SINNERS · 9 mapsedge SINNERS +10%Phantom · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%70%
SINNERS · 6 mapsedge Phantom +20%Phantom · 6 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
50%50%
SINNERS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 10 maps
CachePhantom ban
46%33%
SINNERS · 9 mapsedge SINNERS +13%Phantom · 2 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%50%
SINNERS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanPhantom remove Mirage
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. PickPhantom take Ancient
5. BanPhantom remove Cache
6. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
SINNERS 30%Phantom 70%
The model gave 70% on Phantom — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
SINNERS 62%Phantom 38%
The model gave 62% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 53%
Series resultSINNERS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2