Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SAW#64 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
43%71%
SINNERS · 17 mapsedge SAW +28%SAW · 10 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
65%33%
SINNERS · 22 mapsedge SINNERS +32%SAW · 5 maps
AncientSAW ban
63%58%
SINNERS · 15 mapsedge SINNERS +5%SAW · 8 maps
InfernoSAW pick
40%80%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge SAW +40%SAW · 11 maps
MirageSAW ban
60%50%
SINNERS · 21 mapedge SINNERS +10%SAW · 0 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
36%54%
SINNERS · 10 mapsedge SAW +18%SAW · 9 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%54%
SINNERS · 0 mapsnearly even -4%SAW · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
DeciderCache (43% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
SINNERS 13%SAW 87%
The model gave 87% on SAW — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
SINNERS 58%SAW 42%
The model gave 58% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 58%
Series resultSINNERS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2