ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINQU ban
50%42%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge SINQU +8%Lavked · 27 maps
AnubisLavked pick
50%59%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge Lavked +9%Lavked · 13 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
50%38%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge SINQU +12%Lavked · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%42%
SINQU · 2 mapsedge SINQU +8%Lavked · 8 maps
AncientSINQU ban
50%44%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge SINQU +6%Lavked · 5 maps
CacheLavked ban
43%40%
SINQU · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Lavked · 1 map
OverpassSINQU pick
50%43%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge SINQU +7%Lavked · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Mirage
2. BanLavked remove Dust2
3. PickSINQU take Overpass
4. PickLavked take Anubis
5. BanLavked remove Cache
6. BanSINQU remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed3:13
SINQU 53%Lavked 47%
The model gave 53% on SINQU — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
SINQU 55%Lavked 45%
The model gave 55% on SINQU — the map was taken by SINQU.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
SINQU 56%Lavked 44%
The model gave 56% on SINQU — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 54%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3