NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
68%58%
SPARTA · 37 mapsedge SPARTA +10%BAKS · 8 maps
MirageBAKS ban
52%44%
SPARTA · 21 mapedge SPARTA +8%BAKS · 5 maps
CacheBAKS pick
53%69%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge BAKS +16%BAKS · 12 maps
NukeBAKS ban
52%45%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +7%BAKS · 7 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
48%67%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge BAKS +19%BAKS · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
47%50%
SPARTA · 11 mapsnearly even -3%BAKS · 4 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
43%50%
SPARTA · 3 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanBAKS remove Mirage
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Nuke
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:19
SPARTA 29%BAKS 71%
The model gave 71% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
SPARTA 63%BAKS 37%
The model gave 63% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
SPARTA 47%BAKS 53%
The model gave 53% on BAKS — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 52%
Series resultSPARTA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3