ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
59%67%
SPARTA · 23 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +8%Bushido Wildcats · 11 maps
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
44%60%
SPARTA · 14 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +16%Bushido Wildcats · 6 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
50%22%
SPARTA · 14 mapsedge SPARTA +28%Bushido Wildcats · 5 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
29%50%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +21%Bushido Wildcats · 0 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
50%57%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +7%Bushido Wildcats · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
45%63%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +18%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
60%43%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge SPARTA +17%Bushido Wildcats · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
6. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (45% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
SPARTA 64%Bushido Wildcats 36%
The model gave 64% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
SPARTA 32%Bushido Wildcats 68%
The model gave 68% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
SPARTA 42%Bushido Wildcats 58%
The model gave 58% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 55%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3