NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
60%60%
SPARTA · 16 mapsnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 11 maps
Miragepossible decider
38%50%
SPARTA · 9 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +12%CYBERSHOKE · 10 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
31%62%
SPARTA · 9 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +31%CYBERSHOKE · 9 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
56%33%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge SPARTA +23%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
50%60%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
40%50%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%50%
SPARTA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
6. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
SPARTA 20%CYBERSHOKE 80%
The model gave 80% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
SPARTA 41%CYBERSHOKE 59%
The model gave 59% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 52%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2