NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
67%56%
SPARTA · 35 mapsedge SPARTA +11%Honvéd · 30 maps
Miragepossible decider
54%50%
SPARTA · 22 mapsnearly even +4%Honvéd · 24 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
44%47%
SPARTA · 21 mapnearly even -3%Honvéd · 13 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
50%56%
SPARTA · 18 mapsedge Honvéd +6%Honvéd · 5 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
50%38%
SPARTA · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +12%Honvéd · 9 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
60%33%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge SPARTA +27%Honvéd · 8 maps
DefaultHonvéd pick
33%75%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +42%Honvéd · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Default
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
SPARTA 51%Honvéd 49%
The model gave 51% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
SPARTA 64%Honvéd 36%
The model gave 64% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 60%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2