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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
66%57%
SPARTA · 34 mapsedge SPARTA +9%Inner Circle Academy · 19 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
46%45%
SPARTA · 20 mapsnearly even +1%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
Miragepossible decider
54%57%
SPARTA · 22 mapsnearly even -3%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
52%36%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +16%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
43%60%
SPARTA · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy pick
50%63%
SPARTA · 10 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +13%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
60%50%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge SPARTA +10%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Cache
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (54% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
SPARTA 48%Inner Circle Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
SPARTA 63%Inner Circle Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
SPARTA 66%Inner Circle Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 56%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3