BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSPARTA ban
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge megoshort +10%megoshort · 0 maps
Miragemegoshort ban
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge megoshort +10%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. Banmegoshort remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
SPARTA 37%megoshort 63%
The model gave 63% on megoshort — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
SPARTA 53%megoshort 47%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 66%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2