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WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
56%56%
SPARTA · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
36%50%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +14%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
MirageSPARTA ban
33%71%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +38%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
55%43%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +12%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%67%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +23%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%60%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
56%50%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge SPARTA +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanSPARTA remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (44% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:12
SPARTA 53%Nuclear TigeRES 47%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
SPARTA 34%Nuclear TigeRES 66%
The model gave 66% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
SPARTA 62%Nuclear TigeRES 38%
The model gave 62% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 55%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3