ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fire Flux#128 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit Academy Green pick
60%55%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +5%Fire Flux · 16 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
60%60%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 11 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
67%36%
Spirit Academy Green · 2 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +31%Fire Flux · 10 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy Green ban
50%64%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Fire Flux · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%54%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Fire Flux · 9 maps
NukeSpirit Academy Green ban
50%55%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +5%Fire Flux · 7 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
50%29%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +21%Fire Flux · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Inferno
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickSpirit Academy Green take Dust2
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
Spirit Academy Green 80%Fire Flux 20%
The model gave 80% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
Spirit Academy Green 43%Fire Flux 57%
The model gave 57% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 65%
Series resultFire Flux 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2