ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSpirit Academy Green pick
57%40%
Spirit Academy Green · 3 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +17%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
NukeSpirit Academy Green ban
50%63%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +13%OLDBOYS PL · 4 maps
AncientSpirit Academy Green ban
50%57%
Spirit Academy Green · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +7%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
AnubisOLDBOYS PL ban
60%60%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
CacheOLDBOYS PL pick
40%60%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +20%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
60%50%
Spirit Academy Green · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +10%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Ancient
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
3. PickSpirit Academy Green take Mirage
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Cache
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Anubis
6. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Spirit Academy Green 53%OLDBOYS PL 47%
The model gave 53% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Spirit Academy Green 35%OLDBOYS PL 65%
The model gave 65% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Spirit Academy Green 31%OLDBOYS PL 69%
The model gave 69% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Model check result
Model favoriteOLDBOYS PL · 56%
Series resultSpirit Academy Green 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3